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August 4, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

With two surveys and dozens of component indicators, it isn’t often that the monthly jobs report speaks with one voice, but July’s came pretty close. There was strength through and through, and the few signs of weakness merely confirmed outstanding... Read more

July 26, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The no-drama July FOMC meeting was a testament to the Fed's meticulous, inchwise approach to disentangling itself from its crisis-era policies. As expected, the FOMC statement cranked up expectations for a September announcement another notch, while... Read more

July 21, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

What’s at Stake Look for a modest upgrade to the assessment of the labor market in light of the last jobs report, but little or no change to the growth outlook. The focus will be on the inflation language and whether and how the Committee... Read more

July 7, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Some jobs reports are head-scratchers, and others are head-turners. This one was a head-twister. Just when it looked like the labor market was getting a little closer to a traditional, “old” normal of late-in-the-business-cycle moderating job growth... Read more

July 5, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

While the minutes of the Fed’s meeting in June provided limited additional information on the outlook for monetary policy, there were a few details worth noting. First, and consistent with commentary from Fed policy makers since the meeting, there... Read more

June 14, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Talking Points: June FOMC Cheatsheet Read more

June 9, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Focus on the dot plot. At next week’s FOMC meeting, attention will be focused on the dot plot – specifically, the outlook for rates in 2H 2017. The Fed has worked assiduously to ensure it intentions for this meeting are well understood by the market... Read more

June 2, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Normally, I’m an advocate of digging into the details and the subtleties. That’s still worthwhile with the mixed bag that is the May jobs report, but there’s actually a pretty clear message shining through, at least from the perspective of financial... Read more

May 5, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The April jobs report showed a tight U.S. labor market reasserting some of the dominant themes from the last few years. While it was encouraging to see the obvious bounce back from the lopsidedly weak March report, the details underlined a few... Read more
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